Blue-Collar Boom – Why Gen Z Plumbers and Welders Are Out-Earning Ivy League Grads.

At the age of twelve, Chase Gallagher began mowing lawns in the same quiet, unremarkable manner that most children of that age take on after-school jobs—a little extra cash, something to do on the weekends. He had eighty-two clients by the time he was eighteen. By the time he was twenty-four, his landscaping business, CMG Landscaping, had reported yearly sales of over a million dollars, and he had made slightly less than half a million dollars. He never attended college. He claimed that after looking at the figures, he concluded that stopping his efforts to pay for a degree just didn’t make sense. His math is difficult to dispute.

Although Gallagher’s story is unique in its scope, a generation that witnessed older siblings graduate with $80,000 in debt and spend eight months sending out resumes is starting to share the same instinct. Economists, education researchers, and—possibly most importantly—corporate CEOs are genuinely interested in the rate at which Gen Z, the generation currently transitioning through high school and into adulthood, is selecting skilled trades.

According to payroll platform Gusto, 18 to 25-year-olds made up nearly 25% of all new hires in skilled trade industries in the first quarter of 2024, despite Gen Z making up about 18% of the workforce overall. The change is observable, quantifiable, and accelerating.

Although it took a surprisingly long time for mainstream culture to recognize it, the financial logic is straightforward. Twenty-one-year-old Morgan Bradbury spent roughly $21,000 and nine months at Universal Technical Institute to earn a welding certification. Before she finished the course, she received an offer from BAE Systems to work on U.S. Navy ships in Norfolk, Virginia, starting at $57,000 per year.

Bradbury’s friend who chose to enroll in a four-year university the same year he picked up a welding torch is probably still paying the price for that choice. Between 2011 and 2023, the annual cost of enrolling in an in-state public college increased by about thirty percent. The number of four-year private nonprofit universities increased by 42% during that time. The numbers eventually ceased to support the claim.

It’s interesting to note how the discourse surrounding all of this has changed. Enrollment in trade schools increased by 5% between 2020 and 2023, which is about twice as high as that of four-year universities during the same period. Vocational training-focused community colleges saw a 16% increase in enrollment last year alone, the highest level since 2018.

According to a survey conducted by the home services software company Jobber, only 16% of Gen Z parents now think a college degree ensures long-term job security. Just that figure reveals how subtly but completely a generational consensus has broken down. Although the four-year degree’s prestige hasn’t completely vanished, it isn’t functioning as an unquestionable presumption as it did for the generation that came before it.

The trade school boom has a slightly different character than earlier waves of vocational interest because of a particular anxiety that lies beneath all of this. Choosing a career that is resistant to automation is a top priority, according to 77% of Gen Z workers. Gen Z has noticed that the professions that consistently rank highest on lists of “AI-resistant jobs” are plumbers, electricians, HVAC technicians, and welders.

Anyone who pays attention can see the irony: a generation that was raised entirely online, accustomed to algorithms and digital interfaces, is consciously selecting jobs that call for manual dexterity, physical presence, and the kind of problem-solving that takes place on a roof or in a crawlspace rather than in a browser window. Perhaps this is the most practical reaction to the current state of technology. It might also be a sign of a more profound dissatisfaction with the promises made but not entirely fulfilled by the white-collar digital economy.

Additionally, cultural signals are changing. The early mornings, the physical satisfaction of completed work, and the paychecks that arrive without the burden of student debt have all been documented by Gen Z tradespeople, who have amassed substantial TikTok followings. In a generation that tends to distrust polished narratives, what was once deemed unglamorous enough to be subtly stigmatized has gained a different kind of social currency.

Ford CEO Jim Farley started a campaign to collaborate with technical colleges and provide scholarships for aspiring technicians. President Trump advocated for a “renaissance in manufacturing” and proposed that Harvard create its own vocational program. It’s arguable whether the last proposal was serious, but the fact that it was accepted without widespread ridicule indicates how much the public’s perception of the trades has improved.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for twentysomething vocational school graduates is 2.1%. It is 15.3% for four-year college graduates in the same age group. It’s worth taking a moment to sit with that gap because it’s so startling. There are about 8,000 vocational schools in the US, the majority of which are reasonably priced and produce graduates in less than two years who join a labor market that is currently in dire need of skilled workers.

Opportunities in construction, plumbing, and electrical contracting are being created more quickly than they can be filled by an aging workforce, and the young people entering these fields are doing so with a clear understanding of the economics. The work is not being romanticized. The return on investment is favorable, according to their calculations. That may be the most accurate statement you can make about what’s causing this boom: it’s not nostalgia or ideology. It’s math.